Barcelona – ESI presentation on migration crises, war and the future of democracy in Europe

Gerald Knaus. Photo: CIDOB

At a CIDOB breakfast in Barcelona, ESI’s Gerald Knaus gave a presentation on "Migration crises, war and the future of democracy in Europe". The event was opened by Josep Borrell, president of CIDOB and former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, and moderated by CIDOB’s director, Pol Morillas.

CIDOB – the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs – is Spain’s leading international relations think tank. Its breakfast series brings together policymakers and experts for off-the-record discussions on Europe’s major challenges.

Josep Borrell. Photo: CIDOB

Gerald warned that Europe is facing the gravest test since the Cold War: war has returned, the far right is on the rise, and fear of migration is shaking democratic institutions. He presented data showing that Germany and Austria granted protection to three in four Syrians and over half of all Afghan refugees in the EU between 2014 and 2024 – a burden few others share. Without effective cooperation with transit countries, such as Turkey, and fast procedures for safe-country applicants, this imbalance threatens both asylum systems and political stability.

He argued that irregular migration can be reduced without undermining the right to asylum – as shown by the 2016 EU-Turkey agreement, which sharply cut crossings and deaths. Gerald proposed that the EU conclude safe third-country arrangements that allow for returns under international law and legal alternatives such as scholarships and work visas.

Finally, Gerald stressed that preserving democratic peace in Europe requires reviving the vision that made the EU a success: integration, rule of law, and solidarity. He called for offering candidate countries access to the single market as soon as they meet EU standards – a “Norway in the Balkans” model – and warned that failure to act will strengthen illiberal forces from within and without.

CIDOB breakfast. Photo: CIDOB

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