Munich – ESI presentation on migration, democracy and challenges for politics

At the Munich Economic Debates, hosted by the ifo Institute, CESifo and the Süddeutsche Zeitung, ESI’s Gerald Knaus gave a presentation on "Migration and democracy – challenges for politics". The event, held at the Munich chamber of commerce, also featured a discussion with ifo director Clemens Fuest and was moderated by Lisa Nienhaus from Süddeutsche Zeitung.

Gerald warned that the fear of irregular migration is fuelling political extremism across Europe at a time of unprecedented geopolitical instability. He argued that Russia’s war against Ukraine – the deadliest in Europe since the 1940s – has triggered not only mass displacement but is also a deliberate strategy of destabilisation aimed at exploiting migration anxieties within the EU.

He presented striking figures: over 4.3 million Ukrainians have sought protection in the EU, including 1.2 million in Germany. Yet Germany also shoulders a disproportionate share of asylum claims from Syrians and Afghans, most of whom enter via Turkey. Gerald explained that since 2015, Germany and Austria have granted protection to three in four Syrians and over half of all Afghan applicants in the EU – a reality that demands renewed cooperation with Turkey and credible border strategies.

He also highlighted the dangers of irregular migration across the Mediterranean and the need to reduce deaths by replicating the successful 2016 EU-Turkey model: clear deadlines, legal pathways, and safe third-country agreements under UNHCR supervision.

Turning to domestic politics, Gerald warned that the rise of far-right parties threatens both Germany’s European role and its democratic stability. He called for pragmatic asylum reforms that respond to public demand for control while upholding human rights and EU law.

The debate ended with a call to focus on effective, lawful strategies – from fast procedures for applicants from safe countries to realistic solutions for Syrian refugees in Turkey. Gerald concluded that a migration turnaround is possible, but only if Europe acts decisively and with solidarity.

Gerald’s presentation was followed by a debate with ifo director Clemens Fuest and questions form the audience which was moderated by Lisa Nienhaus from Süddeutsche Zeitung:

After the event, Gerald gave a short interview to ifo Institute:

Gerald also gave an interview to the SwitchingSides podcast:

• Süddeutsche Zeitung, "Die Debatte ist extrem ideologisiert, weil wir kaum auf Fakten schauen" ("The debate is extremely ideological because we hardly look at the facts"), interview with Gerald Knaus, 22 July 2025
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