Munich – ESI presentation on war, borders and democracy in Europe

9 July 2025
Munich. Photo: flickr / Günter Hentschel
Munich. Photo: flickr / Günter Hentschel

At the 75th annual general assembly of the association of employers of the insurance industry in Germany (AGV), ESI’s Gerald Knaus delivered the keynote on “War, Flight, Borders – Migration and the Future of Democracy in Europe”. Addressing over 100 senior representatives and CEOs of Germany’s insurance companies, he spoke on the profound challenges facing Europe and its democracies in an age of mass displacement, war and contested borders.

Gerald began with a sobering account of how Europe has become a continent of refugees once again. Between 2015 and 2024, more than 3.2 million people were granted protection in the EU – half of them in Germany. He showed how current political narratives often distort these figures, ignoring long-term trends of falling asylum applications and the fact that only a few countries bear most of the responsibility.

Turning to Europe’s history, Gerald warned that the vision of a continent at peace – rooted in the Charter of Paris of 1990 and expanded through EU and NATO enlargement – is under threat. Russia’s war against Ukraine has triggered the largest refugee movement in Europe since the 1940s. Across Europe, from the Balkans to the Caucasus, violence has returned. Yet, Gerald argued, the EU’s most successful achievement remains real: there has been no war between EU member states since 1945. “War became unthinkable through integration.”

Drawing on Vaclav Havel, Gerald made the case for renewed commitment to the idea of a Europe united by democracy, rule of law and shared institutions – warning that the door to this vision has been closing since 2004, with stalled enlargement and rising nationalism.

In the second half of his talk, Gerald focused on migration. He showed that humane control is possible: the EU-Turkey agreement of 2016 led to a drastic reduction in deaths in the Aegean and in irregular arrivals. He argued that a sustainable European asylum policy must include fast asylum procedures, cooperation with safe third countries, legal migration pathways and effective returns. Without these, public trust in asylum systems and liberal democracy itself will continue to erode.

Gerald concluded by urging Europe’s leaders and societies to rediscover the narrative that made the continent successful: one of peace through integration, order with compassion, and values backed by pragmatic policy.