Podcast: 10 episodes on migration and the future of Europe – lies, facts, solutions

• Elections in Germany – A shock and an opportunity
• Solutions, not pipe dreams: a proposal from the centre
• Doing what works
• 2plus2ist4 book recommendations – 1984, 2008, 2025

“Do you remember,” he went on, “writing in your diary, ‘Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four’?”
“Yes,” said Winston.
O’Brien held up his left hand, its back towards Winston, with the thumb hidden and the four fingers extended.
“How many fingers am I holding up, Winston?”
“Four.”
“And if the Party says that it is not four but five – then how many?”

George Orwell, 1984

Dear friends of ESI,

Last week we began a ten-part German language podcast with discussions on the future of Europe. In these first ten episodes of the new podcast 2 + 2 = 4, we discuss facts, answers and solutions to one of the most controversial topics of our time: migration, borders and asylum, against the backdrop of dramatic developments.

The first two episodes are here: 2 + 2 = 4 Der Europa Podcast

The first season deals with German and Austrian migration policy, the failure of the EU on this issue since 2015, the successes of far-right parties, Orban, and Trump; the “Biden trap”, the “ÖVP trap”, and the failure of migration research since 2015; migration policy in the USA; and moral as well as immoral, successful as well as failed migration agreements.

It is about the future of the UNHCR in the Trump era, and about the path to a humane and sustainable asylum system that can count on majority support.

 
ESI discussion on Europe and migration in Düsseldorf and Munich

 

Elections in Germany – A shock and an opportunity

The general election is behind us. For the first time since 1949, a far-right party has received a fifth of the vote. The AfD is the strongest party everywhere in eastern Germany. In Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and Rhineland-Palatinate, as well as in western Germany as a whole, it is the second strongest.

The pressure on parties in the political centre is therefore increasing, not only in the Bundestag, but also in the federal states. The next German government must be successful if Germany is to remain a stable democracy at the heart of Europe; a state that neighbours can rely on and do not have to fear. However, the success of the next government will also be determined by the success or failure of German and European migration policy.

CDU/CSU have won the election; the only option is a coalition with SPD. The parties face the challenge of jointly adopting a migration policy that will reduce irregular migration – without breaking the law. A policy based on realistic promises.

The numbers show the challenge. After the exceptional Covid year of 2020, the number of asylum applications rose from 2021 onward to 244,000 (2022), 352,000 (2023) and 251,000 (2024). This was despite the fact that the 2021 coalition agreement promised to reduce the 2021 figure (191,000). In no year was this achieved.

Development of annual asylum application figures since 2020

BAMF-Statistic

Was this due to the policies of the “traffic light coalition”? No.

It was mainly due to the collapse of the EU-Turkey Statement in March 2020.

The asylum trend in Austria – with chancellors and interior ministers of the ÖVP – ran exactly parallel to that in Germany. The number of refugees accepted per capita in Austria was even higher than in Germany:

 

 

Solutions, not pipe dreams: a proposal from the centre

How can Germany achieve humane migration control?
Discussion with the CDU board

Can the democratic centre agree on a successful migration policy? Is it possible to significantly and quickly reduce irregular migration and the number of asylum applications? And without an “emergency situation”, without fences around Germany, in line with the European Convention on Human Rights?

Our answer is clear: yes, it is possible.

The focus should be on measures that have already had a demonstrable effect in recent years: safe third country agreements (such as the  EU-Turkey Statement in 2016), more safe countries of origin (such as the Western Balkans in 2015 and Georgia in 2023), and a clear focus on the deportation of dangerous foreigners who are obliged to leave the country (such as the Special Task Force for Dangerous Foreigners in Baden-Württemberg).

From 2016 to 2019, the number of asylum applications in Germany fell every year – from 746,000 to 166,000. How did this come about?

 
ESI meeting with Lars Klingbeil –
discussion in Hanover with Minister-President Weil

NEW: Migration appeal from the centre

The three most important measures:

1. 1. A handful of safe third country agreements, negotiated by a coalition of affected EU states before the end of 2026. Turkey is particularly important for Germany (and Austria).

The right to asylum does not include the freedom to choose the country in which protection is granted. Anyone who applies for asylum at Europe’s external borders should be transferred to a safe third country after an admissibility check and be processed there. In the event of a positive outcome, this third country will grant the applicant immediate protection. A comprehensive agreement will be reached to this end. The necessary changes to EU law are a priority for 2025.

2. 2. More safe countries of origin

Asylum procedures for persons from countries with a recognition rate of less than five per cent must be accelerated even further. For all countries of origin whose recognition rate lies under five per cent, formal and material regulations must automatically apply to enable accelerated processing.

3. 3. A focus on the deportation of all deportable dangerous foreigners

In cooperation with the federal states, the next federal government will record exactly how many convicted criminals and persons posing a threat to public safety who are obliged to leave the country are present in all federal states, and make it a joint priority to deport as many of them as possible within two years. It will regularly inform the public about its progress. The Special Task Force for Dangerous Foreigners in Baden-Württemberg shows that this is possible – if politicians are serious about it.

 

Doing what works

The EU-Turkey Statement came into force in March 2016. The impact on irregular migration to the EU and the number of asylum applications in Germany was enormous.

In the 12 months between April 2015 and March 2016, 1 million people entered the EU via the Aegean. In the 12 months following the EU-Turkey Statement, only 28,000 people came across the Aegean. The number of arrivals fell to three per cent of what it was. There was no displacement to other routes in the Mediterranean:

Irregular migration across the Mediterranean to the EU

In 2016, the “grand coalition” of CDU/CSU and SPD proved that irregular migration can be reduced quickly and significantly. It was also the right policy in moral terms: cooperation with Turkey dramatically reduced the number of deaths in the Aegean.

In May 2024, a majority of European countries called for a revival of this model.

The designation of safe countries of origin in the Western Balkans also led to a rapid decline in asylum applications after 2015:

Applications for asylum in Germany from the six Western Balkan states

We could now build on this. (Almost) hopeless asylum applications in Germany in 2024:

It’s not about blocking people from these countries from applying for asylum; those who are persecuted can continue to do so. It’s about ensuring that those who don’t have a chance don’t do it, and thereby easing the burden on the asylum system.

The guiding principle: no illusions, no empty promises, measurable success. The alternative? Continue as before – and the AfD’s next election success is guaranteed.

 
Discussion at the Junge Union’s Germany Day, 2024 –
Falter discussion in Vienna

 

2plus2ist4 book recommendations – 1984, 2008, 2025

In each episode of the podcast, we give a book recommendation. The recommendations so far:

George Orwell – 1984

A book that everyone has heard of, that is constantly quoted, and that many people probably read a long time ago (and therefore have forgotten all the details). It is the book for this moment: what happens to our language and our thinking when a political system is based on lies and violence?

Edward Lucas –The new Cold War: How the Kremlin menaces both Russia and the West

This book was published in 2008 and Lucas, like few others, recognised early on that an authoritarian and aggressive Moscow posed a threat not only to Russians, but to the world. How could so many people ignore this? Because they didn’t want to listen to Putin. Because they ignored the escalating violence in Chechnya. Because they did not want to take the warnings of Russian journalists seriously. And some because they let themselves be bought. It is important to learn from this.

Yours sincerly,