Refugee continent – Olga in Paris – Turkish catastrophe

• Ukrainians and European solidarity
• Why Olga will not go to France
• Homes for Ukrainians across Europe?
• A European message to Putin: solidarity
• Where refugees get protection – a global view
• Turkish catastrophe

Dear friends,

In 2022 European democracies welcomed more refugees in one year than any other continent in recent decades. This has one principal cause: the Russian attack on Ukraine in February.

Here are the numbers. If we leave aside the descendants of Palestinians, who fled from Israel in 1948 and who are under the mandate not of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR, but of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, UNRWA, then the total number of refugees under the mandate of UNHCR in the world at the end of 2017 stood at 19.9 million. At the end of 2021 it stood at 21.3 million.

The net increase in the number of refugees in the world under UNHCR's mandate was 1.4 million in four years.

Between 24 February and 31 December 2022, more than 4.6 million Ukrainians asked for temporary protection in the EU. More than 150,000 fled to the United Kingdom. More than 70,000 remained in Moldova. Within months, Russia's attack had triggered the biggest refugee movement in Europe since the 1940s, with many millions more displaced inside Ukraine.  Today, Europe is the continent with most refugees in the world.

Net increase in number of refugees

Increase in number of refugees under UNHCR mandate,
in the world, in four years (2017-2021):                                      1.4 million
Ukrainian refugees in the EU, in ten months 2022:                4.6 million

More on the reality of refugee reception worldwide: Humane borders and the future of the refugee convention.

 

Ukrainians and European solidarity

The war in Ukraine is still ongoing and the biggest displacement crisis in Europe since the 1940s is far from over. A new ESI paper looks at one of the most striking aspects of this historic refugee movement. With free choice where to go in the European Union, Ukrainian refugees have overwhelmingly chosen not to go to some of the biggest European countries:

Olga in Paris
Why are there so few Ukrainian refugees in France?
14 February 2023

This builds on analysis ESI published in December 2022 on how Europeans might respond to a historic refugee winter:

ESI newsletter – Homes for Ukrainians – a plan for winter
29 December 2022

On 4 March 2022, the EU ministers of interior activated the so-called Temporary Protection Directive. As a result, Ukrainian citizens and their family members could apply to be granted temporary protection without an asylum procedure. EU-member states committed themselves to offer them residency rights, access to the labour market, access to housing, social welfare assistance, medical or other assistance, and “means of subsistence.” Temporary protection was granted for an initial period of one year. On 10 October 2022, Ylva Johansson, the European Commissioner for Home Affairs, announced after a meeting that “the Temporary Protection Directive will continue to be in place at least until March 2024.”

So where did Ukrainian refugees find protection? Czechia and Poland received the highest number per capita: more than 4 percent of their population. Another six countries received applications amounting to 2 or more percent.

2 percent and above – Ukrainians and temporary protection (24 January 2023)

Another 1.2 million applications were submitted in four countries: Ireland, Germany, Luxembourg, and Austria received applications equivalent to 1 to 2 percent of their population.

Below 1 percent – Ukrainians and temporary protection (24 January 2023)

These are remarkable numbers: more Ukrainians applied for protection in the Czech Republic (11 million inhabitants) than in France, Italy and Spain combined (174 million inhabitants). More Ukrainians applied for protection in Bulgaria (with a population of 7 million) than in France (population 68 million).

But why are there so few Ukrainian applications in France (or Spain, or Italy)? What factors explain this uneven distribution of temporary protection applications?

One obvious factor is geographical proximity. Many Ukrainians preferred to stay close to their country. The number of Ukrainians in Poland and Slovakia alone is 1.7 million. This is more than a third of the total number of temporary protection applications. Proximity matters, but it is not everything. Two neighbours of Ukraine – Hungary and Romania – have received far fewer applications: Hungary (with a population of 10 million) received fewer than Latvia (with a population of 2 million).

Language matters. Among the top 8 countries are four where a Slavic language is spoken: Czechia, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia. Another three (the Baltic states) contain a significant number of Russian speakers. These seven countries account for 2.5 million applications, more than half the total. The only outlier among the top 8 is Cyprus.

Geography and language are givens. A third factor, however, is a matter of political decisions: the support offered to Ukrainian refugees and private households which are prepared to host them. It is this third factor that explains some striking numbers.

 

Why Olga will not go to Paris

In 6 months, from July 2022 to January 2023, some 27,000 Ukrainian refugees arrived in France and 352,000 in Germany. The state of Baden-Württemberg (population 11 million), bordering France, is hosting more Ukrainians than all of France. Why?

Imagine a Ukrainian mother and her 13-year-old son, crossing the EU border this winter in search of temporary protection. Let us call them Olga and Serhii. Like many Ukrainians, Olga speaks Ukrainian, Russian, and some English. Then Olga learns that France has one of the lowest per capita numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Europe.

Olga types “Україна біженці Франція” (Ukraine refugees France) into google. This takes her to a French government site in Ukrainian, which promises “all useful information for displaced people in Ukraine”: https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-ukraine/accueil-des-refugies-version-ukrainienne^. The text starts:

“You have arrived from Ukraine, welcome to France. The French population, the State, local authorities and associations are fully mobilised to welcome and support you. This portal aims to provide you with the information you need for your stay in France and to access your rights.”

A hyperlink takes her to a map of France with registration points. She checks links on the map. Most links lead to sites which are in French only. Eventually she gets to a link sur le site du ministère de l'Intérieur, the site of the Ministry of Interior. It is, again, in French only, but here Olga spots a link to a “Welcome booklet in France for displaced persons from Ukraine”, a 56-page bi-lingual publication.

WELCOME BOOKLET IN FRANCE
FOR DISPLACED PERSONS FROM UKRAINE

Under the heading “Allowances” there is one paragraph (and no link). How much help she and her son might receive in France is not explained. Information on accommodation leaves Olga confused. There is little information on costs of, or social support for, rent (and no link).  

Reading through the leaflet, however, Olga does not get any sense of how she might live in France, what social support will would get, and how she might be able to rent a place to live.

Olga tries to contact Ukrainians already in France via social media. She then learns that, once granted temporary protection, Ukrainians are not in the same position as other recognised refugees in France, getting significantly less social support.

For a single person, the social allowance is € 204 per month (€ 6.80/day), for two persons it is € 306 per month (€ 10.20/day). In addition, Olga can apply for € 222 in rent support, if she has not been provided with free housing of any kind.

France: Social support per month

Olga then talks to someone who has chosen to go to Germany. The contrast is stark.

In Germany, Olga and her son Serhii would receive monthly social support of € 850. In addition, she would get rental and heating costs, up to € 740 if she rents an apartment of 65 m². It includes € 122 costs for heating, which is a maximum amount. The exact amount depends on the heating system used. This is three times the amount she would receive in France.

Germany: Social support per month

How likely is it that Ukrainians who might arrive in the European Union in the coming months will take a train and head to France, rather than stay somewhere on the East side of the Rhine?

From July 2022 to end January 2023 the number of Ukrainians who applied for temporary protection in France increased from 92.000 to 119.000. During the same time, the number in Germany went from 670,000 to 1,022,000.

 

Homes for Ukrainians across Europe?

Welcoming Ukrainians in Dublin

In March 2022, Ireland declared that it was ready to accept up to 100,000 refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine. Ireland introduced a generous Accommodation Recognition Payment for hosting refugees from Ukraine (ARP):

“The Accommodation Recognition Payment (ARP) is a tax-free payment of €800 per month for each property used to provide accommodation to refugees from Ukraine … The accommodation must be provided for at least 6 months and meet the required standards.“

In recent month, the German NGO Alliance4Ukraine and ESI have launched a campaign for such a scheme to be introduced in Germany and in other European countries: a Dankespauschale / Thank You Payment of €500 per month per hosting household, to be paid for renewable 4 or 6 months.

 
Making the case for German Thank you payments

The United Kingdom is an outlier among European countries, the one country Ukrainian refugees can only enter with a visa. With a population of 67 million, the UK took in just 0.2 percent of its population. This is more than France and Greece, but less than every other European Union member state. If the whole EU had acted like the UK, it would only have seen 1 million Ukrainian refugees enter.

 
Proposal for German Thank you Payment

Ukrainian visa-holding refugees also arrive in the UK via two schemes: the Ukraine Family Scheme and the Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme. The sponsorship scheme is also known as Homes for Ukraine. One aspect of the Homes for Ukraine programme is an inspiration to the rest of Europe: Thank you payments for hosting families of £350 (around €400) per month for hosting families.

According to a survey conducted by the Office of National Statistics in July 2022:

• Only 6 percent of UK hosts said they wanted the arrangement to last less than 6 months.
• 19 percent said they were happy with the arrangement to last the agreed 6 months.
• 24 percent said they wanted the arrangement to last between 6 and 12 months.
• 37 percent said they were happy for the arrangement to last 12 months or more.

Thank-you payments made a real difference:

“Of those who planned to provide accommodation for between 6 and 12 months, 7 in 10 said continued £350 monthly payments would encourage them to host for longer.”

In December 2022, the amount of Thank you payments increased to £500 a month “for guests who have been in the country for over a year … ‘Thank you’ payments will also be extended from 12 months to 2 years … where sponsors are willing to extend arrangements.”

 

A European message to Putin: solidarity

For European democracies to be prepared to cope with more Ukrainian refugees in 2023 such a programme would also be needed in France, Italy or the Netherlands, countries that have so far taken relatively few Ukrainian refugees.

If households in Lyon, Milan, Utrecht or Stockholm are ready to welcome Ukrainians, they should receive similar support from their governments. This would help ensure a more balanced distribution of refugees in 2023.

Could the European Commission, the Swedish EU-presidency, Germany, France, and the UK jointly organise a campaign for European Homes for Ukrainians, with national thank-you payments to households on the UK/Irish model? A public-private partnership to confront a historic refugee winter? A tangible expression of true European solidarity?

This would make sense for any country to introduce even on its own. There is an urgent need to support existing private hosts as local authorities are increasingly struggling across Germany to host more refugees. At the same time, a Europe-wide campaign that shows civil societies, backed by governments, prepared to host more Ukrainian refugees is a powerful signal to Russia and to its fifth column inside the EU that Putin's horrific blackmail will fail. Putin hopes to divide European societies. His instrument is terror against Ukrainian civilians. He must not succeed.

In the end, whether there will be 2 million, 10 million or 15 million Ukrainian refugees at the end of 2023 will depend on the success of Ukrainian resistance to Russia and on the military, financial and logistical support Ukraine receives from its allies: on more ammunition and air defense systems. On more generators and transformers. On battle tanks to address the “root cause” of Ukrainian mass displacement: Putin’s invading army.

However, until Ukraine can win its war, European states need to be ready to help those who seek safety.

 

Where refugees get protection – a global view

UNHCR, most recent Global Trends Report, summer 2022

From end 2017 to end 2021, the number of refugees in the world increased by 1.4 million. Two countries stand out globally: Germany and Turkey. Both are at the centre of the two biggest recent refugee crises in the world in half a century: the crisis in Syria, now aggravated by the deadliest earthquake in Turkey in a century, and the crisis in Ukraine.

UNHCR: increase in the number of refugees – top 20 countries

As we have seen, in 2022 these numbers have been dwarfed by the number of Ukrainian refugees met with generosity by many European countries. The same generosity was shown, following the outbreak of fighting in Syria in 2011, in Turkey. There too, millions of Syrians were able to enter without a visa and received temporary protection.

The enduring result of this policy is that Turkey remains the country in the world hosting the largest number of refugees. On 2 February 2023, there are 3,500,964 Syrians under temporary protection in Turkey.

Today, Turkey has the largest number of refugees of any country in the world, which accounts for over 4 per cent of its population of 85 million. In addition, between the end of 2017 and the end of 2021, Turkey had the largest increase in the number of refugees under the mandate of UNHCR, with a rise of approximately 280,000, second only to Germany.

At the same time, in February 2023 the deadliest earthquake in a century in Turkey has disproportionately affected a region that has offered more shelter to more refugees than any other in Europe in recent years.

 

Turkish catastrophe

Victims of the earthquake in Turkey

Next to the challenge of handling potentially many more Ukrainian refugees, the issues of supporting these devastated refugee host communities in Turkey must today be at the top of the European political agenda. 

The UN Refugee Compact, adopted with great fanfare by the United Nations General Assembly in late 2018, declared the need for solidarity of countries hosting refugees:

“Countries that receive and host refugees, often for extended periods, make an immense contribution from their own limited resources to the collective good, and indeed to the cause of humanity. It is imperative that these countries obtain tangible support of the international community as a whole in leading the response.”

No country has hosted more refugees in the past decade than Turkey. Almost half of the 3.5 million Syrians in Turkey are children (1.6 million or 47 percent). Almost half of these Syrian refugees also live in the eleven provinces most affected by two devastating earthquakes this month. 

The top five Turkish provinces hosting Syrians are Istanbul, Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Hatay, Adana. Many of these provinces have now been hit hardest by the biggest natural disaster in modern Turkish history. The 11 Turkish provinces most affected by this earthquake have a population of 15.6 million people. They are hosting 1.7 million Syrian refugees. This is 11 percent of their total resident population.

Turkish provinces most affected by the earthquake, (2 February 2023)

The EU has a lot of recent experience supporting Syrian refugees and host communities in Turkey, having successfully allocated 6 billion Euro for refugees there between 2016 and 2020.

What is needed now is a mobilisation of a similar nature for the next four years. This will require finding NEW money for a donor conference to be held in Brussels in March, funding that is proportionate to the scale of this disaster. It should help Turkish communities hosting Syrians, as well as the millions displaced inside Syria near the Turkish border:

• Reconstruction. About a quarter of the buildings in the affected region in Turkey are either destroyed or heavily damaged. This will require funding and technical assistance to support the reconstruction of homes, public infrastructure, and essential services, such as water and electricity, in affected communities.
• Social protection programs. The EU currently funds cash support and social protection programmes for the most vulnerable Syrian refugees in Turkey. Such a program should be continued, expanded and extended to include the most vulnerable Turkish citizens in the refugee host communities.

The Syrian refugee crisis and the Ukrainian refugee crisis have triggered the two biggest global refugee disasters since the early 1970s. This is not a new normal: it is a historic emergency, made worse by the consequences of this year’s devastating earthquakes.

Both crises pose massive challenges to European democracies, putting the European refugee protection system to an unprecedented test.

Yours sincerely,